Lockdown measures are now being eased in all parts of the UK. Further, from 4th July pubs, cinemas, restaurants and museums in England will open their doors again.
Using official surveys and publicly available market research, we ask what sort of a nation is it that is now emerging from months of lockdown and how likely are we to see some form of normality returning?
A nation worried about work and the economy - some more so than others
We see a nation in which many people are not actively working and have acute money worries. The
ONS Opinions and Lifestyle survey shows that as at 7th June 2020,
one third (33%) of employees had not done paid work the previous week due to being furloughed, self-isolating, a temporary business closure, caring for others or being off sick. For the self-employed, the survey estimates that 20% had not done work that week.
The economic impact has not been uniform across the population. People with low and middle incomes are the most adversely affected by the economic fallout of coronavirus. Those with a personal income of up to £20,000 are the most likely to have experienced a reduction in income and least likely to be able to save for the year ahead.
Economic well-being by income band, GB, May 2020, ONS
Conversely, those who earn over £40,000 are less likely to have been furloughed, experienced reduced working hours or a reduction in income and are most likely to have retained the ability to save money in the year ahead.
Although we see great concern among some income groups in relation to personal finances, generally speaking there is a disconnect between what people think will happen to the economy and the impact it will have on them. Populus’s
Covid19 Public Perception tracker (June 30th)
reveals a net worry about the economy score of 83% (% of people worried minus not worried). However, when it comes to worry about their finances the net worry score is 41% and for job security it is 38%. People think bad things are going to happen but the majority don’t think they’ll be affected by it. This could be true. But it could also mean an unfortunate economic surprise for a lot of people.
The disproportionate medical impact of the virus on Black and minority ethnic communities is well documented.
Research for the Fawcett Society
shows how this affects anxiety levels among BAME communities. BAME women are particularly worried about being in more debt post Covid-19 than before – 43% compared with 37% of white women. For BAME men the figure is 35% compared with 34% for white men.
Similar differences were found in relation to whether people will struggle to make ends meet in the next three months. BAME men and BAME women were much more likely to be worried about paying their rent or mortgage compared with white men and women (38% BAME women, 37% BAME men compared with 32% white women and 28% white men). Nearly two-thirds of BAME women (65%) and just under three-quarters of BAME men (74%) feel anxious about going out to work during the pandemic.
An anxious nation suspicious of others
As we emerge from lockdown we find a nation showing high levels of anxiety and suspicious of other people.
MindMover’s
Emotion Index
has been tracking consumer feelings fortnightly since the start of the pandemic. General feelings among consumers are still very low although have improved slightly over the last few weeks. Feelings towards fellow citizens has improved over the last two weeks having previously plummeted as incidents of disregarding social distancing increased.
Emotion Index over the first seven waves,UK, June 30th 2020,MindMover
Sentiment towards the government’s handling of the crisis continues to be negative.
Are people more positive about the type of society they live in?
YouGov polling in mid June
found that two thirds of people thought that the UK was getting a worse place and only 5% thought it getting better. The question was very general and people will have answered it based on their individual circumstances rather than a common view but it does highlight a nation not at peace with itself.
With high levels of anxiety it is not surprising that huge numbers of people are having their sleep disrupted.
The excellent
Rebecca Ironside’s Made You Think
has been running a Covid-19 qualitative community and has some interesting insight on sleep. She found that dreams have become more vivid during lockdown and less restful and that people are actually going to bed earlier. Despite the earlier bed times, sleep is poorer than pre lockdown days.
People aren’t sleeping and they’re not having more sex! The fabulous Joe Twyman at
Deltapoll has some insight into our sex lives. Deltapoll found that, overall, for half the population the amount of sex that they are having is the same as pre lockdown but there are quite significant variations according to whether you live on your own or with a partner. For one in five people living with a partner the lockdown has resulted in more sex but for two-thirds of single people it has resulted in less. On these figures, a baby boom in 2021 is not looking likely.
A nation prepared for a long haul back to normality
People do not expect a return to normal life anytime soon. The ONS Opinions and Lifestyle survey shows that the longer the pandemic has gone on the longer people think it will take to return to normality. In early April, about one in 10 people thought it might take a year to get to normal. By early June it is one in four – a quarter of the population.
An interesting think piece from
Opinium [PDF download]
asks people to think about their attitudes and behaviours post lockdown. It compares findings from April with those of May. It reveals that over half of consumers (58%) feel apprehensive about the future and 65% think it’s going to be ‘really weird’.
People's predicted attitudes and behaviours post-lockdown NET Agree, UK, May 2020, Opinium
Two months into lockdown and people were less likely to want to go abroad on their holiday. Probably the only surprising thing about this is that just over one third were even thinking about it. The proportion who thought they would go back to the old habits and behaviours also fell between the waves. Fieldwork was conducted in mid May so attitudes will have changed since then. Nevertheless, the data leads Opinium to conclude that normal isn’t coming back anytime soon.
Most important issues facing Britain today, top mentions,GB, June 2020, Ipsos Mori
The Issues Index also sees the increasing importance of the Black Lives Matter movement with concerns about race relations up 22 percentage points. We are likely to see this figure increase.
There is also evidence that people are getting a bit fed up of coronavirus in the news. Research by Ofcom found that
34% are trying to avoid news of the virus
up from 22% twelve weeks ago. Under 35s in particular are looking to avoid news on covid-19.
Businesses believe in their own bouncebackability
A
survey of business leaders by YouGov
shines some light on their thinking. Nearly eight in 10 business leaders expect the economy to be worse in 12 months time but they expect their own company to be more resilient: 39% said their company would be doing worse in 12 months compared with how they were doing pre lockdown. But a quarter (26%) thought they would actually be doing better than they were pre lockdown with FS leaders the most optimistic at 37%. The same survey shows that two thirds of businesses are likely to make redundancies once the furlough scheme ends.
The latest instalment of the fortnightly
Opinium-Cebr Business Distress tracker [PDF download]
(wave 4, June 2020) suggests that the threat of insolvency has receded for many businesses. In the latest wave two thirds of a representative sample of businesses said that they were at no risk of insolvency from Covid-19 related disruption. This is up from 41% at the back end of April.
Retailers seem a lot more optimistic than previously. In the previous wave, 40% of retailers said that they were at moderate or high risk of insolvency due to Covid-19. Two weeks later, following the news of reopening, that figure had dropped to 18%.
A nation unlikely to Spend! Spend! Spend!
Are retailers right to be optimistic? Will consumers go on a spending spree now that lockdown is lifting? While it is true that shoppers have returned to the High Street since non-essential shops were allowed to open, in England at least, the level is nowhere near pre-lockdown levels. Springboard estimated that footfall across the UK for
week commencing 15th June was 45% up on the previous week. This, however, is still 54% down on the same period last year. And more recent research from
Ipsos Retail Performance
shows that things have not improved that much. On Saturday July 4th, footfall was down 52% year on year.
Market research surveys also produce a mixed picture in relation to consumers' intentions to spend again: some will, some won’t.
According to
BVA BDRC’s Covid-19 tracker
from 16th June just under one third of people (32%) are likely to have a bit of a splurge to treat themselves or their family when life gets near normal again. The under 35s, families and those living in the midlands are the most likely to splurge while older people and those in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland least likely to spend out.
With shops reopening, many retailers will be hoping that consumers, deprived of retail therapy for so long, will start to splash the cash on the High Street. If survey results are to be believed then many might be disappointed.
A nation that will shop differently
RED C Research has been undertaking ongoing qualitative research with families in the UK and other countries throughout the pandemic. In relation to
UK food shopping habits, their research concludes that the lockdown has changed the way we shop with greater reliance upon deliveries and local grocers for fresh fruit and veg. Brand affinity has gone out the window as ranges have been trimmed and stock shortages experienced. The new way of shopping has meant that more time has gone into meal planning as once a week deliveries have replaced multiple visits to the supermarket.
RED C believe that the changes in food shopping are here to stay: online food shopping is easier and saves both time and money. There’s an added bonus too for families – the arrival of the shopping can create excitement among children especially if there are treats that they have been allowed to order.
Cambridge MR has
looked back through their archive of food testing reports
to see what lessons can be learnt from the 2008/9 recession in relation to food and drink. Back in 2009, buying British was considered an important recession beating behaviour and is likely to be so too this time, especially as we leave the EU. Further, families felt the effects of the recession hardest and this could well add further momentum to the permanent discount model of Aldi and Lidl. Finally, behaviour in 2009 was all about price, value and recycling. Post pandemic, health benefits are likely to have a bigger impact along with the use of sustainable materials and responsible food sourcing.
A nation longing to socialise and have fun but reluctant to do so too soon
The excellent
BVA BDRC Covid-19 tracker
provides a lot of insight for the leisure and entertainments sector.
The wave from 16th June shows that as well as missing family and friends, people miss going out to pubs and bars. Families in particular miss going on days out to visitor attractions. However, when asked how long they think it will be before they will visit an attraction, the average time is perceived as being 4.1 months. Two weeks later (fieldwork June 23rd-25th) this lead in time has decreased to 3.6 months leading BVA BDRC to conclude that we may be getting closer to 'normal' lead in times for days out.
The most recent wave
(published 1st July) shows that 22% of people say they are likely to visit a restaurant by the end of July. This is up from 14% prior to the reopening of the sector. Intention to visit the cinema by the end of July remains flat at 6%. The figures still suggest a certain reluctance for people to take the plunge.
How strongly are Britons missing various activities, UK, BVA BDRC/Alligator, 16th June 2020
With over a quarter of Britons missing going to the pub a lot, did their reopening on 4th July lead to a huge rush of people going to the Dog and Duck? YouGov data suggests that 5% went to the pub
the weekend of reopening. Men are more likely to have gone than women (7% versus 4%). A similar percentage went to get a haircut at the weekend although we don't know how much these two activities were related.
Going on days out often involves travel by public transport. The BVA tracker shows a slight recovery in intention to take a train and bus compared with the previous wave. Just over one in five (22%) will take a train by the end of August (up from 19%) and one in four (26%) will take a bus.
Research by Savanta published in
Museums and Heritage Advisor,
presents a mixed picture. On the one hand, 41% of a sample of the UK population say having a day out is one of the things they are most looking forward to post lockdown (this is second only to visiting family and friends). However, most people who used to take days out regularly (66%) want reassurance that it is safe to visit an attraction before doing so. Reduced capacity, security guards ensuring that social distancing is adhered to and free hand sanitisers are top of the list of things that would make attractions safe to visit.
What does this all mean?
Trying to make sense of life during a global pandemic is a fool's errand but here goes.
On the whole the nation is taking a pragmatic approach to life during lockdown and how we emerge from it. Although longing to do the things that we used to - see friends, going out, socialise, having fun - we are reconciled to the future being a bit weird and having to endure restrictions to normal life for the foreseeable future. Generally speaking, we want to make the best of things as they are and have, by and large, adapted to the demands of the situation. We see this particularly in relation to food: shopping has moved to online, meals have been planned better and brand loyalty has been replaced by brand availability.
Pragmatic it may be but it is also a nation ill at ease with itself and others. We don't completely trust the government or people around us. This is an incredibly important point because it will dictate the speed at which things return to normal. If people carry on perceiving others to be a risk because they flout social distancing rules, or don't trust government messages around safety, then they will be reluctant to go to bars and restaurants, visit the High Street or have days out - despite really wanting to do so.
For many of us, the 'bunker mentality' of the last few months will be hard to shake off while levels of anxiety, fear and mistrust stay as they are. For many, avoiding other people has become the norm. The effect of this on the economy will be profound. It will govern whether the on-coming recession is V shaped, U shaped or longer lasting. It could also result in the anxiety and worry that many feel becoming more and more engrained with huge consequences for mental health as a result.
Of course, the nation is not made up of one homogenous group. There are many segments in our society and the response of each of these will be different. Some sections of society want to live for today and will return to normal life much sooner than others - we see this already with media reports of packed beaches, increasing numbers of holiday bookings and people splashing the cash in retail therapy. We are likely to see a short-term spike in consumer spending as a result but whether this is sustained is open to doubt. There is also a worrying danger that many might have underestimated the impact of the recession on their own personal finances.
The data also shows how those already disadvantaged have been hardest hit by the economic impact of Covid-19. Lower income groups and BAME communities in particular have seen their economic outlook worsen.
The nation seems more divided than ever and eradicating inequality has to be the number one priority for the post Covid-19 nation.
