Euro 2020 round of 16

Who needs Ronaldo and Mbappé when you have the big lad Data Science in your team?

For R16 we have calculated the probability for each country of them winning their tie. This is based on form coming into the tournament (Euro 2020 qualifiers, World Cup 2022 qualifiers and Nation's League) and results from the tournament to date.

We have also factored in that England is the only R16 country playing at home and will have an advantage due to home support. Our research has previously shown that home fans make a difference to the team's performance.

We calculate that England has a higher probability of winning than opponents Germany but it's close. If it goes to a penalty shootout then all bets are off!

Not such good news for Wales as the model sees them going out against the Danes.

Italy has the highest probability of progressing at 75% with Netherlands not far behind at 71%. Based on probabilities, Belgium v Portugal also looks to be close.

England to win Euro 2020 - what are the chances?

We have run our model multiple times to take into account the possible fixtures each country will have in the R16, quarter finals, semi-final and final. We have then analysed the number of times each country is modelled to win Euro 2020 and expressed this as a percentage which we call the percentage chance of winning.

According to our model, England has an 11.1% chance of winning but France have the greatest chance at 12.4%. Wales has a 3.2% chance of winning the tournament but if the Welsh can recreate the spirit of 2016 (when they reached the semi-final) then who knows where that could take them?

Each country's chance of winning Euro 2020

There's a saying in football that you have to beat the best teams to win the tournament. There are, however, easier draws than others and progress can often be down to which teams are on your route to the final. In the 2018 World Cup, for example, England had a comparatively 'easy' route to the semi-final by having Colombia and Sweden in their half of the draw.

We have analysed the extent to which each team's chances of winning Euro 2020 has increased or decreased by their draw in the R16 and subsequent rounds by comparing it to the average chance of winning the tournament from every possible combination of opponents had their opposition for the R16, quarter final, semi-final and final been selected at random.

The graphic below clearly reveals that teams in England's half of the draw have had their chances of winning the Euros improved by being on this side of the draw. The exception to this is Germany whose chances have reduced against the average due to England's home advantage in R16. England's chances have also improved due to home advantage.

The other side of the draw is harder (as shown by the red bars). The only teams from the other half of the draw to have had their chances improved are France and Italy because they have a comparatively easier R16 match against Switzerland and Austria respectively.

For more data science at the Euros go here.