Premier league predictions update

Note : The probabilities include matches played up to and including Thursday 10th March 2022

As the heat map shows, the title is still Man City’s to lose. Despite losing against Spurs our model gives them a 79% chance of winning the league this season. This probability is way ahead of Liverpool's at 21%. This is due to Liverpool having the more difficult run in: they play Man United, Spurs and Arsenal as well as Man City away from home.

The top 4 looks to be Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea and one of Arsenal, Man Utd and Spurs, with Arsenal being favourite at 57% to make the top 4 thanks to their great recent form.

Norwich and Watford look destined to go down, however, the final relegation spot looks less clear. The great form of Newcastle has seen them move out of danger and the poor form of Leeds, Everton and Brentford have pulled them into a relegation fight along with Burnley. Currently, Leeds (40%) are favourites to join Watford and Norwich in going down. Burnley (31%), however, have a high probability of being relegated and Everton (22%) and Brentford (12%) are also in trouble.

The six pointers

We are now into the last third of the season where matches seem more crucial as teams battle for European spots and against relegation. The most important of these matches are the 6-pointers - matches where teams battling for the same objectives face each other where it's possible for one teams to gain 3 points at the same time a rival is dropping 3. Given the importance of these matches, we focus now on what would constituent a good result for the teams involved.

Battle for the title

Liverpool has still to play Manchester City at the Etihad and if they are to have aspirations of winning the title, it is a game that they probably need to win. A win for Liverpool against their title rivals would almost quadruple their chances of winning the league compared with losing or drawing the game.  If they draw or lose then their chances decrease by 19% and 81% respectively compared with if they were to win.

Top 4

Arsenal, Manchester United and Tottenham are the three main competitors for the top 4 and while Arsenal are favourites the final standings could be determined by a number of '6-pointers' with all three teams still to play each other.

If Manchester United are to get top 4 they may have to win both games against Arsenal and Spurs as even picking up 4 points may not be enough.

Tottenham have more acceptable options than Manchester United as even beating Arsenal but losing to Manchester United would give them a 29% chance of achieving top 4 .

Arsenal are in the strongest position. If they pick up at least 2 points from these two games they should be above 50% to get the top 4.

Relegation battle

It looks probable that Watford and Norwich are going down, with the final relegation spot between Brentford, Leeds, Burnley and Everton.

Out of the teams in contention for the final relegation spot, Leeds's only 6-pointer is against  Brentford. A win for Leeds in this game would increase their chances of survival by 50% compared with losing or drawing the game. A draw or a loss would decrease their chances by 5% and 32%  respectively compared with not achieving that result.

Brentford have the most 6-pointers as they play Leeds, Burnley and Everton in the run in. Win all three and their chances of survival are almost 100%. However, even if they lose two of these matches as long as they win the other one, their chances of survival would still be over 80%.

Wins for Burnley against the Bees and the Toffees could see them safe. Given Burnley's knack of beating the drop in previous seasons, you wouldn't put it past them.

Wins for Frank Lampard's Everton against Burnley and Brentford should see them safe. Lose both and they are in trouble with a probability of being relegated around 50%.

The model, and therefore these predictions, does not take into account the effect of managerial changes, injuries to key players or government issued sanctions, all of which could have a big impact on a team's performance.

Whatever happens, the run in to the Premier League season looks set to be an exciting one. Probably.