Match round 1 - favourites have upper hand
Who needs Ronaldo and Mbappé when you have the big lad Data Science in your team?
We've taken data science to the Euros to predict who is likely to progress from the group stage into the knockouts, who will qualify as one of the best 3rd place teams, which teams will win the knockout games and ultimately who will be crowned Euro 2020 champions.
We do this by analysing results prior to the Euros including goals scored and goals conceded and add to this results from group games in the Euros itself. Using this data we have predicted the results of group matches and worked out the probability for each team of them progressing in the competition.
The results so far
The first round of matches in the Euro 2020 group stage have been completed which gives a great opportunity to review what the stats tell us so far.
Our take from crunching the numbers is that generally the favourites are getting their way and are all on course to get through to the knockout stage. We estimate that there is a 71% probability of Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, England, Spain, France, Portugal and Germany all making it through.
Another thing that stands out for us is the margin of victory. We are seeing a higher winning margin from more dominant favourites (Italy, Belgium, Portugal) suggesting a bigger gap in skill level between the top team and those predicted to finish 3rd of 4th in the group. Typically games in the Euros are tight affairs with matches won or lost by a single goal (61% of the time in previous Euros). In Euro 2020 five of the 12 games were lost by a single goal (42%). Out of the 12 games played during match week 1, three of them were won by a 3 goal margin (25%), in the previous 100 games played in the Euros group stage only 14 games (14%) were won by 3 or more goals.
A few surprises from the 1st group matches
Although the favourites generally got their way, there were a few surprising results from the first round.
The form book suggested that Finland had a 10% chance of beating Denmark but clearly the shocking and upsetting situation with Christian Eriksen meant the form book went out of the window.
Poland v Slovakia provided the most genuine shock of the first round. Poland had a 53% probability of winning with Slovakia only having an 18% probability. The Poland red card made a difference but it's still a shock result.
Also upsetting the form book was Sweden's draw with Spain. The form book suggested that Spain had a 68% probability of winning with the draw a 21% probability. Spain had most of the possession but if you don't score you don't win.
Is Finland more likely to qualify than Germany?
Whatever the circumstances surrounding Finland's win against Denmark, the facts of the matter are that they are just one win away from qualifying for the knockout stage. This would be some achievement for a country that had never before qualified for the Euros. A win against Russia in their second match would see them through.
Conversely, does Germany's loss to France in match one mean that they are looking at a group stage exit for the second Euros in a row? Does Finland now have a better chance of progressing than Germany?
We have estimated the probability for Finland and German of finishing 1st to 4th in their group. It shows that Finland has a 6% chance of finishing top and a 34% chance of finishing second. Finishing in either of these places would result in qualification. It is most likely, however, that Finland will finish third (46% probability) but if they finish 3rd they are unlikely to go through as one of the best 3rd placed teams - as we estimate a 29% probability of qualifying for them in this position.
Where will they finish : probability of finishing in each position in the group
After losing their first game to France, Germany are as likely to qualify for the knockout stages in 3rd as they are to qualify in 1st or 2nd. If they finish 3rd, they are more likely to qualify for the next round than Finland would if they too finish 3rd in their group.
The conclusion from this is that Germans will qualify (probably in 3rd) and if Finland beat Russia in their second group game they qualify.
Predictions for the group stage
For each team we show the percentage probability of progressing to the knockout stage once our model has predicted the outcome of every match played. We then update it to take into account results from the Euros.
Our predictions show that all of the favourites are likely to go through to the knockouts with probabilities in the high 90 per cents.
After beating arguably their hardest opponent, England look set to qualify for the knockout stages. One more win for England guarantees qualifying for the knockout stage even if they finish 3rd.
Conversely, after losing their first game against (on paper) their easiest opposition, Scotland’s chances of qualifying for the knockout stages has taken a big hit falling by a factor of 3 from 45% (pre tournament) to 16% now. But Scotland could still qualify. Getting at least three points from their remaining fixtures against England and Croatia and finishing 3rd would give the Scots a 58% probability of qualifying.
Not much has changed in terms of Wales's qualifying chances (47% pre tournament to 45% now). The big incentive for Wales is that a win against Turkey would give them 4 points and at least a 95% chance of getting through if finishing 3rd. Even if they don't win but draw their remaining two games, they would have a 77% chance of getting through assuming they finished 3rd in the group.
For more data science at the Euros go here.