Homecoming takes step closer
Who needs Ronaldo and Mbappé when you have the big lad Data Science in your team?
England's 2-0 win against Germany has put them in the quarter finals where they will play Ukraine.
Our analysis shows that England is favourite to win that match but their fans shouldn't get too carried away. Both Netherlands and France were clear favourites to progress from the round of 16 and came undone.
Overall, five of the eight round of 16 matches went with the probability with Sweden (59% probability) being the third team to crash out while having a greater probability of winning. It just goes to show that there are no certainties in football. Sweden was beaten by Ukraine so England's next opponents have form in upsetting the odds.
Quarter final probabilities
We have calculated each country's probability of winning their quarter final. This is based on form coming into the tournament (Euro 2020 qualifiers, World Cup 2022 qualifiers and Nation's League) and results from the tournament to date.
Belgium v Italy looks the closest match with Belgium just edging it in our model with a 52% probability of winning. The model gives Denmark a higher probability of winning against Czech Republic and comes down in favour of Spain against Switzerland.
England has a probability of 71% to beat Ukraine in Rome on Saturday.
England to win Euro 2020 - what are the chances?
To calculate each country's chance of winning we ran a predictive model that takes recent and current form into account and models the results of all possible quarter final, semi final and final combinations of opponents and outcomes. We then analysed the number of times each country is predicted to win Euro 2020 and expressed this as a percentage, which we call the percentage chance of winning.
England has the most chance of winning of all the remaining countries. There are two reasons for this. First, England has an easier side of the draw and are, therefore, more likely to make the final than Belgium and Italy who play each other and Spain who are likely to have to play the winner of that fixture. If England gets through to the semi final they will play Czech Republic or Denmark. This will be a tough game but not as tough as facing Spain, Italy or Belgium.
Second, the semi final and final will be played at Wembley Stadium giving England a home advantage boost.
Football is not coming home just yet but it has its bus fare ready. It's now down to the football not the percentages.
For more data science at the Euros go here.