Final Premier League Prediction

William Wagstaff • 23 April 2022

With the Premier League season coming to a close, we again compute the probabilities of where each team will finish in the final table.

As we did before, we will be using our Dixon and Coles style football match predictive model to simulate thousands of possible permutations of results to predict the final standings probabilities.



The Premier League final standings probabilities

Note : The probabilities include matches played up to and including Thursday 21st April 2022

As the heat map shows, despite Liverpool's strong recent performances, Man City is still the favourite to win the league (62%). The top 4 looks to be Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea and one of Arsenal or Spurs. The model makes Spurs the favourite for fourth (55%) ahead of Arsenal (43%) with Man United's chances looking slim (2%).


Norwich and Watford look destined to go down, while Burnley (52%), Everton (35%) or Leeds (13%) could join them.

The model, and therefore these predictions, does not take into account the effect of managerial changes, injuries/return of key players or the importance of picking up points to the team (e.g. mid-table safe teams vs relegation threatened teams), all of which could have a big impact on a team's performance.

Whatever happens, the run in to the Premier League season looks set to be an exciting one. Probably.

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