Who will take their Euro 2020 chance?
Who needs Ronaldo and Mbappé when you have the big lad Data Science in your team?
The Euro 2020 semi finals see Italy play Spain and England take on Denmark. Both matches are at Wembley stadium as is the final.
One team is just two wins away from lifting the trophy. Which one will it be? We've cranked up our predictive model, based on form coming into the Euros and results at the Euros, to work out the probabilities.
Semi final probabilities
We calculate that England has a 66% probability of beating Denmark to reach the final. England and 66; that's a positive omen.
Our calculations factor in home advantage for England but do not take account of the remarkable and emotional journey that the Danes have been on following Christian Eriksen's cardiac arrest in the Finland game. It could be much closer than Denmark's 34% probability of winning suggests.
The Italy - Spain game has a much tighter probability with Italy just shading it. Again, expect a close, tight match.
England to win Euro 2020 - what are the chances?
To calculate each country's chance of winning we ran a predictive model that takes recent and current form into account and models the results of all possible combinations of opponents and outcomes for the final. We then analysed the number of times each country is predicted to win Euro 2020 and expressed this as a percentage, which we call the percentage chance of winning.
England has the most chance of winning at 34.2% but Italy is very close behind at 30.4%. The model believes that Italy has a tougher semi final draw than England which means their probability of winning Euro 2020 is lower.
In our analysis before the quarter final we said that football may not be coming home just yet but it has its bus fare ready. This most recent analysis suggests that it's on its way to the bus stop.
For more data science at the Euros go here.